New polling has found that many LGBTQ+ voters would potentially vote for more conservative candidates if not for the GOP’s virulent opposition to LGBTQ+ rights.
A survey of 600 LGBTQ+ Americans shared withABC News by The Independent Center and the Bullfinch Group found that this demographic is far more likely to vote for President Joe Biden than Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election – despite voicing more moderate views on a myriad of issues that place them more squarely in the realm of swing voters.
Related:
The poll found that a plurality of LGBTQ+ voters totaling 30 percent identified themselves as moderate centrist/independent. It also asked respondents to rank themselves on a 0-10 scale, with 0 being the most liberal and 10 being the most conservative. The average was 3.9, with a plurality of folks expressing they want politicians to be a 5.
Your LGBTQ+ guide to Election 2024
Stay ahead of the 2024 Election with our newsletter that covers candidates, issues, and perspectives that matter.
Moreover, 24 percent of respondents (another plurality) said the most important issue in the nation today is “jobs and the economy.”
The data shows LGBTQ+ people have the potential to be an “up for grabs” demographic, but for now, they sway liberal when voting due to the GOP’s anti-LGBTQ+ agenda.
“If I was talking about any other group, and I said 16 percent of X demographic is unsure how they’re going to vote in the election… and a plurality of these voters do not affiliate with the Republican or Democratic parties, and the most pressing issue that this demographic finds in America today is jobs and the economy… If I said that to an RNC meeting right now, they would go, ‘Oh, great, fantastic, which group? That sounds perfect. That’s right up our alley,’” Bullfinch Group CEO Brett Loyd told ABC.
But LGBTQ+ issues have prevented the party from pursuing this voting bloc and have largely alienated the demographic from wanting anything to do with the party.
Seventy-three percent of respondents to the Independent Center poll ranked LGBTQ+ issues as equally or more important than other issues in affecting who they vote for. This is likely the motivating factor that led 43 percent of respondents to say they will “definitely” vote for Biden, with another 13 percent saying they are leaning toward doing so. This compared to 28 percent who said they would definitely vote for or are leaning toward voting for Trump. The numbers also reportedly show LGBTQ+ voters are more likely than the general population to vote for Biden.
The results are especially meaningful, considering that the same number of respondents (47 percent) reported they approve of Biden’s work so far as those who reported they disapprove. This means LGBTQ+ voters aren’t particularly enthralled by Biden, but they have far more faith in him protecting their rights.
Another poll released by GLAAD similarly found that a majority of LGBTQ+ voters prefer Biden to Trump – and also that this demographic is especially motivated to vote.
Among the poll’s key findings, 83 percent of registered LGBTQ+ voters said they would definitely vote in November, while 11 percent said they probably would. More than half of those voters said they prefer the Democratic incumbent, with 68 percent indicating they would likely vote for Biden versus 15 percent who said they prefer Trump.
Those findings are particularly significant. In a press release, GLAAD cited a 2020 Washington Post analysis that found that LGBTQ+ voters made up 7–8 percent of the overall electorate that year, playing a decisive role in closely contested swing states. GLAAD’s poll found that likely voters who identify as LGBTQ+ in seven key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) prefer Biden to Trump by more than 57 percentage points.
Similarly, 94 percent of LGBTQ+ voters, 76 percent of registered voters, 76 percent of likely 2024 voters, and 82 percent of swing voters agreed that “Republicans should stop focusing on restricting women’s rights and banning medical care for transgender youth and instead focus on addressing inflation, job creation, and healthcare costs.”
“Overall, the reason that LGBTQ people seem to vote in large numbers for Democrats is because, unfortunately, today’s Republican Party has made LGBTQ equality a partisan issue,” Zeke Stokes, a GLAAD consultant told ABC. “There are LGBTQ people on all places of the ideological perspective when it comes to what we would traditionally consider conservative to liberal in this country. But we’ve got one party, unfortunately, who’s put a target on our backs, in order to appeal to a minority of their base.”
