In 2024, the Republicans ran on platforms of hatred and fear bolstered by promises of an economic paradise. Two years on, and Americans can see how those promises have played out. The atrocities committed by ICE have been thorough and well-documented, and they haven’t made anyone’s lives better. As they’re left with little more than pushing trans hate, the Republicans are facing a bleak 2026 election.
The big three topics from 2024 Republican campaign ads, at least after Joe Biden stepped out of the race and couldn’t just be called “old,” were relatively simple. They promised to fix the economy (despite evidence from Donald Trump’s first term that suggested that was unlikely). They claimed that Democrats couldn’t be trusted because they would “trans” everyone’s kids (Harris is “for they/them” being their favorite nonsensical slogan). And, of course, a right-wing favorite: all your problems are caused by immigrants, they’re eating your pets, and we’ll deport them, which will fix everything.
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But as we approach the midterms, the Republicans hold a trifecta with the presidency, Senate, and House. No Democrat is heading the chambers of Congress or running for the top spot that can be easily painted as a devil to distract from the Republicans’ own failings. So they have to run on policy platforms and claims about their own performance.
Blaming the woes of the union on immigrants was always a bunch of lies. We know that. But in a world where ICE has spent two years terrorizing communities, killing citizens, and being featured on the news regularly, it’s getting hard for anyone to believe that they’re a solution to anything. Trump might boast about how many immigrants have been deported, but overall opinions have turned against ICE.
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In July 2025, Gallup reported a record high: 79% of Americans thought immigration was good for the country, with only 30% saying they wanted to see a decrease in immigration, down from 55% the year before. In 2026, the support for immigration has dipped from that high, but still sits well above the 25-year average.
In 2024, Trump made big gains in Latino voter support, and that support helped him to flip Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. Now, Latino voters are saying Trump’s immigration policies have gone too far, with 26% of those surveyed saying they know someone who has been deported.
In July, a YouGov poll showed that most Americans have little to no confidence in ICE. That majority grows even among Republican voters when they are aware of the ICE killings.
ICE has been extremely visible in their work. Claims that they are targeting violent criminals primarily have been proven false. Those Haitians that Vance falsely claimed were eating people’s pets were in the United States on Temporary Protected Status. Trump revoked those TPS protections and took it to the Supreme Court. Those immigrants are being sent back to a deadly country, grandmothers are being given ankle monitors, and some are taking their own lives rather than face the shame and horrors of deportation and ICE treatment. “Simply put, the Supreme Court’s ruling will directly result in thousands of innocent people dying violent, needless deaths,” plaintiff attorneys Geoff Pipoly and Andy Tauber said.
ICE has been horrific, but it’s also been loud and expensive. With them detaining and deporting so many people, if all the things that Republicans claim are the fault of immigrants really were, things would be a whole lot better right now.
But between Trump’s poorly thought-out tariffs backfiring spectacularly and his war of choice in Iran, things are only getting worse for Americans who were promised a fixed economy. Gas and groceries are more expensive, inflation is up, and families are struggling to make ends meet. A Harris Poll this summer showed that over half of Americans were struggling to afford everyday necessities, including groceries and gas, with two-thirds of Americans, including 49% of Republicans, having “little faith” that the federal government will improve the cost-of-living crisis. Pessimism about the economy also increased from February to May for all Americans, regardless of their political affiliations. All of those are things that hit everyday Americans hard in the day-to-day in a way that an abstract concept of “immigrants” can’t really combat.
With ICE demonstrating so horrifically that it was never the immigrants’ fault, Republicans are left only with the last of their three big ploys from the 2024 campaign to play with: trans people.
The Republicans, with Elon Musk’s help, are pushing millions into anti-trans ads. But Pew Research’s latest survey found that only 14% of Republicans were concerned about “policies related to gay, lesbian or transgender people,” the second lowest rate of concern among the base for the issues surveyed. KFF didn’t even list trans rights in their poll.
The last two years have seen multiple negative Supreme Court rulings against trans rights. Policies have come in from the administration to block us from the military and bathrooms, while lawfare limits our care and the Education Department puts trans kids at risk.
And, ultimately, voters still can’t afford groceries.
The Republicans keep playing the same tune, but evidence suggests that people have disengaged from the Republican messaging. Voters have always struggled to be interested in anti-trans ads, and outside of the vocal minority of anti-trans crusaders, people have real issues to worry about.
In my recent conversation with Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT), she said, “People are saying to me as I’m out in the field, ‘trans people are not to blame for the fact that I can’t afford my health insurance.’”
Trump fulfilled one hateful campaign promise with ICE, and in doing so effectively put the lie to his claims about the economy. With all of that, there’s a very real possibility that Republicans could lose not just the House, but the Senate as well. It would be nice to think that the midterms will turn to the Democrats in a referendum on all of this anti-trans hate. But in the end, voters across the country will most likely realize that the emperor has no clothes on. And I guess I’ll take it.
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